September 6, 2024​View in Browser - Sign Up​ Good morning and happy Friday. Congress returns to session on Monday for a sprint through September before breaking for the election. This week's edition previews what to watch for this fall, before and after November 5th. Top Points
Fall PreviewAfter a long August recess, Congress returns next week. Here's a look at what to expect on the legislative front during the final four months of the 118th Congress. Legislation Pre-Election The House and Senate are slated for session from September 9th to September 27th before breaking for an election recess until November 12. Most pressingly, Congress needs to pass a government funding bill by September 30. On government funding, there are two open questions. First, for how long will funding get extended: through December, setting up another year-end must-pass bill? Or through the start of the next Congress (March 2025)? Second, what, if any, riders will get attached? The House is reportedly considering attaching the SAVE Act - a bill that would require proof-of-citizenship to register to vote, but the Senate and White House are expected to oppose the measure, potentially setting up a government shutdown fight. Aside from government funding, the House and Senate are expected to focus floor time on political messaging bills they believe could help their Members (or hurt opponents), rather than bipartisan bills of substance. In other words, it is unlikely any crypto legislation sees floor time before the election. Post-Election After the election, Congress has roughly five weeks of session left in the 118th Congress – often referred to as the “lame duck.” During a lame duck session, there is often a flurry of deal making as Members look to attach bills they’ve been working on for the last two years to “must-pass” bills before a new Congress gets sworn in and the legislative process begins anew. “Must-pass” bills this year include the National Defense Authorization Act, Intelligence Authorization Act (which will likely get rolled into NDAA), and a debt limit increase (January 1 deadline).
If crypto legislation passes this Congress, it would likely be during the lame duck via amendments to a must-pass bill. Any final deal on legislation will likely depend in part on election results, and the expected balance of power next year. For example, if Republicans win the Senate, do they compromise with Democrats on market structure, or hold off until Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and Senator John Boozman (R-AR) have more influence heading up Senate Banking and Senate Ag? Or, if Democrats take back the House, does now-Ranking Member Maxine Waters urge Democrats to hold off on crypto legislation until she is once again Chairwoman of HFSC and has more leverage crafting policies to her liking? With these high-level considerations in mind, here's a closer look at what to watch for on some specific crypto policy issues: Stablecoins On stablecoins, there has been bipartisan support for legislation aimed at establishing clear rules for issuers, protecting customers, and improving transparency (e.g., establishing minimum reserve & disclosure requirements for issuers). In the House, HFSC advanced Chairman McHenry’s Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act last year by a 34-16 vote. In the Senate, Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) proposed their own framework earlier this year, though that bill remains stalled in Senate Banking. At a high-level, the House, Senate, and White House still need to hash out two key issues:
Market Structure On market structure, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has voiced support for getting something done and bringing legislation to the floor in the lame duck. However, Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is still working on her bill to regulate the digital commodities market. Chair Stabenow’s bill text has yet to go public, and plans to markup the bill before August recess were punted, with Stabenow pointing to a lack of Republican support. Of course, the House passed its own market structure bill – FIT 21 – earlier this year with strong bipartisan support (279-136). So, even if Senate Rs and Ds get on the same page, they also have to work out a deal with Chair McHenry and House leaders to reconcile differences between House and Senate frameworks. Notably, Chair Stabenow and Chair McHenry are both retiring this year – perhaps adding further incentive for both parties to reach a deal by year end. Illicit Finance On illicit finance, the House passed the Financial Technology Protection Act (“FTPA”) by voice vote under suspension of the rules earlier this year. (Notably, prior to the House floor vote, HFSC voted 50-0 to advance it out of committee). The FTPA would create a working group tasked with studying and developing legislative and regulatory proposals to combat illicit financial transactions involving new technologies, including digital assets. While more aggressive illicit finance proposals have been floated in the Senate (see, e.g., DAAMLA; Terrorist Financing Prevention Act), the lowest common denominator of bipartisan, bicameral support appears centered around a “study first” approach, similar to what’s included in the FTPA. SAB 121 Repeal Perhaps because this issue unites TradFi and crypto alike, few issues have garnered as much bipartisan attention as SAB 121. While the veto override vote fell short of the 2/3 threshold, the initial SAB 121 repeal resolution had a bipartisan majority in the House and a 60 vote (filibuster proof) majority in the Senate. Thus, it’s possible Congress has the votes to include a SAB 121 repeal bill in a must-pass bill, forcing the White House's hand. Commerce ​The House passed three bipartisan bills focused on commerce-based use cases under suspension of the rules earlier this year. Given the bipartisan votes, perhaps at least one of these bills can make it across the finish line. Of particular note, Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-FL) Consumer Safety Technology Act passed by voice vote on the House floor, signaling extremely broad bipartisan support. The Consumer Safety Technology Act would:
Hearings Despite slim chances of crypto legislation moving before election day, there's still plenty to watch for on the hearings front in September. Schedules are still being finalized, but here’s a quick look at what could be ahead: House Financial Services Locked In:
Senate Banking
Senate Ag Committee
Look AheadPresidential Debate
Quick HitsTigran Gambaryan
Enforcement CFTC
SEC
Federal Reserve
Presidential Election
TriviaLast Week's A: In the 1972 Presidential election, Robert Sargent Shriver replaced Thomas Eagleton as George McGovern's Vice Presidential nominee. This Week's Q: Which President signed into law a congressional act making Labor Day a federal holiday? * * * * Thank you for reading. And go BC 🦅. -GSL Warpcast: @caphillcrypto Sign up 👇
*All information contained in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal or financial advice. You should conduct your own research, and consult an independent financial, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions. The author may own cryptocurrencies discussed herein.* |
Interested in the intersection of crypto, blockchain, web3 and policy? I'm a former U.S. Senate staffer and lawyer writing a newsletter focused on creating nonpartisan, hype-free crypto policy content that is accessible to all.
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